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The forecasts of the leading rating agencies and banks insist that the growth of the Greek economy will reach 2.4% in 2024 despite the difficult geopolitical conditions that prevail. Greece's economic performance remained strong in 2024 as GDP grew by 2.1% year-on-year in Q1 and 2.3% in Q2 2024. Also positive is that the Greek economy has returned to a trajectory of primary surpluses. The economy recorded a surplus of 0.9% of GDP in the first five months of 2024, slightly higher than 0.6% in the corresponding period last year, due to higher tax revenues. Good progress in the implementation of projects financed by the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RESF) has made a huge contribution to growth, mitigating downside risks arising from global and regional turbulence, weaknesses in key export markets, as well as disasters due to climate change. By July 2024, Greece had received 14.9 billion. EUR 100 million from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (41% of the total amount available of EUR 36 billion), which is higher than the EU average in terms of absorption.
The big thorn in 2024 remains inflation, which, although reduced compared to 2023, reaches 3% for the period so far in 2024. The main sectors showing a rise in prices are energy, housing and food.
In the field of tourism now the messages are very positive. All indications are that 2024 could be another record year. Tourist arrivals for the first half of 2024 alone increased by 15.5% compared to last year's period. Significantly, even road tourist arrivals have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Regarding the total arrivals, it is estimated that they will reach 38 million. The implementation of major infrastructure projects that are in progress is also crucial in boosting tourism. The completion of road axes in mainland Greece as well as in the island country, the metro of Thessaloniki, the connection of railway networks with ports and airports boosting trade, transport and tourism.
In the unemployment sector, the index again fluctuates at single-digit levels between 9.5 and 9.9%. Of course, the increase in seasonal work in tourism contributed to this. Although estimates see a slight improvement in the last quarter of the year, the unemployment rate for 2024 will hardly fall below 10%. It is encouraging, however, that the Bank of Greece's forecast for wages shows an increase of up to 5% at the end of 2024. As the report states, the increase in the minimum wage, the tightness of the labor market and staff shortages play a decisive role in this. If the forecasts are confirmed, this increase will compensate for the first time the inflation that remains at 3% as mentioned above.
Everything indicates that the last quarter of 2024 will close positively despite the difficult conditions prevailing at the geopolitical and international level.
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