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The 2024 budget, titled “Budget for Renewed Hope” was presented to the National Assembly by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR on November 29, 2023.
The budget represents a collective effort to address the complexity of the rapidly changing global landscape while addressing domestic challenges.
The Nigerian government's fiscal revenue forecast for 2024 is ambitious, with an estimated revenue of 18.32 Trillion Naira. The government expects more revenue from government-owned enterprises and other sources, reflecting its optimism about revenue generation.
However, historical data and expectations present a challenging backdrop. In the past, the government has struggled to meet revenue targets, with significant shortfalls compared to budget figures. For instance, in 2021, actual revenue stood at 4.64 Trillion Naira, a 41% decline from the budget of 7.89 Trillion Naira. Similarly, in 2020, revenue stood at 3.4 Trillion Naira, in stark contrast to the expected 8.15 Trillion Naira.
The Nigerian government's proposed expenditure for the 2024 financial year is 27.5 Trillion Naira, 19% higher than the 2023 budget. The budget allocates significant funds to various sectors, including education, healthcare, infrastructure and defense.
The allocations to education are below UNESCO's recommendations for developing countries, indicating the potential need for additional investment in this sector.
The 2024 budget is expected to have a significant economic impact on several key indicators such as GDP growth, inflation and unemployment. However, concerns remain about the realism of the budget projections and their potential impact on the economy.
GDP Growth: The budget projects an economic growth rate of at least 3.76% for the year, thanks to higher oil production and tax collections. However, doubts remain about the ability to achieve this growth target.
Inflation: The budget aims to ease the cost-of-living crisis, but the removal of fuel subsidies and the possibility of higher petrol prices could put pressure on inflation. The government's revenue expectations are also considered ambitious and there are concerns about the potential impact on inflation if these targets are not met.
Unemployment: The budget includes measures to combat unemployment through priority spending in the areas of security, infrastructure and job creation.
Based on the analysis of Nigeria's 2024 budget, the following are our recommendations:
Increase Public Participation: Government should actively engage citizens in the budget process, seek their input and feedback. This can be achieved through town hall meetings, community consultations and the use of digital platforms to gather public suggestions and concerns.
Tax Reform: The government should consider tax reform to improve revenue collection and management. This could include measures to improve tax compliance, reduce corruption in revenue collection and explore innovative revenue sources to reduce dependence on oil revenues.
In conclusion, the 2024 budget reflects the Nigerian government's commitment to addressing key development priorities in the areas of infrastructure, health, education, poverty alleviation, and defense. However, the budget also highlights the need for sustained efforts to overcome implementation challenges and ensure that the allocated funds effectively contribute to the country's development goals.
Reference/ Citation
https://businessday.ng/uncategorized/article/nigerias-2024-budget-is-hallucinatory/
https://www.thecable.ng/well-ensure-2024-budget-addresses-needs-of-nigerians-says-abbas/amp
https://budgit.org/2024-budget-issues-begging-for-attention/
